Актуальные проблемы Европы №2 / 2014 - страница 33

Figure 4. Predicted effects of wealth, parties, and location on Rule of Law

Discussions of Mediterranean politics often resort to stereotypes recalling Montesquieu’s belief that «passions» arise from «warm climates». Montesquieu did not distinguish the Mediterranean climate from that in northern Europe, but others have when discussing the recent Eurozone crisis. Involving problems with sovereign debt, banking, and economic growth, the Eurozone crisis (which began in 2009) was most severe in five countries: Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (5). That four of the five were Mediterranean countries fueled old regional stereotypes, which crept into political discourse about resolving the crisis. One analyst described the discourse this way: «Maybe the problem is those southerners lolling in the northerners, rigid beyond reason, so gloomy in their own lives that they're determined to see the southerners suffer» (11).

In truth, politics in European countries bordering the Mediterranean have been demonstrably more volatile than politics in their northern neighbors. According to the 2007 WGI measure, «Political Stability and Absence of Violence» (described above and scored two years before the Eurozone crisis), the 19 EU members not bordering the Mediterranean Sea scored significantly higher on political stability than the 9 members on the sea (0.87 vs 0.62)13.

One need not succumb to stereotypes, however, to conclude that countries bordering on the Mediterranean Sea tended to rate significantly lower on Rule of Law in 2011, even after controlling for country wealth and the absence of party politics. The difference is a genuine source of concern for the EU’s «European Neighborhood Policy». Why this difference exists requires more sophisticated analysis than attributing it to climate.

1. A-Z index // European Union site. – Mode of access: http://europa.eu/geninfo/atoz/en/index_1_en.htm

2. Bodenstein T., Furness M. The edges of external governance: Europe and its Mediterranean neighbours. – Berlin: Freie Univ., 2006. – 31 December. – 29 p. – (GO-EuroMed working paper; N 0614). – Mode of access: http://www.go-euromed.org/documents/working_paper/Go-EuroMed_ WP_0614_Germany_Negotiations.pdf