Probabilistic Theory of Stock Exchanges - страница 16

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" [Mises, 2005]. In order to solve problems and achieve goals, these "homo agens" or, more precisely, market agents, under the influence of constantly changing life and business circumstances, are forced almost continuously to make new important decisions related to the purchase and sale of goods and services, production, marketing, logistics, personnel control, etc. Being rational, these people try to make those decisions that will bring the greatest benefit and return on the efforts made. Such rational decisions can only be made on the basis of sufficient information available regarding the factors affecting their interests and decisions. This is why people are constantly in the process of searching for and processing new market information that is important to them. But the real world is such that we never fully have sufficient and reliable information about things of interest to us, primarily because of time constraints. Moreover, due to our limited mental and technical capabilities, we are not always able to correctly process and interpret even the information that we have at the right time and in the right place.

It is our deep conviction that human nature, as well as the nature of market economic systems, is such that all our knowledge of markets is only approximate, so all market decisions can only be approximately correct and optimal. Moreover, in practice we are Explicitly or implicitly aware of this fact and take it into account in our decision-making and evaluation of its consequences. Strictly speaking, our market decisions can only be probabilistic in nature. And since, according to our view of the market economy, all economic processes and phenomena are exclusively the result of the actions of all the economic agents, it inevitably follows from all of the above that all economic processes and phenomena in the market economy are also, to some extent, probabilistic in nature. Consequently, only one step remains to draw the fundamental conclusion that the market economy is not just a complex, dynamic, nonequilibrium system, but also a probabilistic one [von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1970; Kondratenko, 2005, 2015; Mises, 2005; Waltuch, 2008; Keynes, 1921; Farjoun, Machover, 1983; Ball, 2003]. Therefore, in order to present a sufficiently complete description of such complex probabilistic systems, the corresponding economic theory should also be largely probabilistic. For this, at least, it is necessary to incorporate the concept of uncertainty and probability into economic theory at a suitable mathematical level, i.e., to develop a dynamic probabilistic economic theory that is sufficiently adequate to economic reality. Our research is devoted mainly to achieving this goal.