The probabilistic method has long been used in economic research at the empirical level using the basic formulas of probability theory. The use of this method in economics, by analogy with the quantum mechanics of physical systems [Kondratenko, 2005, 2015], has widely expanded the scope of our ideas about the modern economic world, generated a new probabilistic style of scientific economic thinking and created a new probabilistic dynamic picture of the modern economic world, alternative to traditional static ideas of mainstream economics, including neoclassical economics. This monograph essentially solves the problem of practical application of this approach to specific economic systems, namely stock exchanges, since we have enough input data for their quantitative study, i.e., supply and demand quotations, as well as relevant experimental data represented by market prices and trade volumes for theory verification.
Probabilistic economics, as well as many probabilistic theories in various fields of science, primarily in physics, for example, in statistical and quantum physics, is developed in terms of probability distributions. We emphasize that probability distributions are the very thing that forms the basis and language of a probabilistic, scientifically substantiated method for studying complex dynamic systems.
The possibilities of probabilistic economics methods to accurately describe real markets have been demonstrated earlier [Kondratenko, 2005, 2015] using examples of small model commodity economies. In this work the author, on the basis of probabilistic economics, aimed to create the foundations of the stock exchange theory, capable of filling the gaps described above in the modern theory of finance, the results of which will be in good agreement with the experimental stock exchange data. This goal was achieved. Let us specify that it is clear from general considerations that the microscopic theory developed in this study is devoted to the study of various stock exchange structures and processes at the level of exchange agents, and even more precisely – at the level of actions of individual exchange agents. The main purpose of microscopic theory is to describe the process of these structures’ formation based on the specific actions of the agents. First of all, this study will cover the mechanisms of exchange prices and trade volumes formation based on the quotations of market agents (in a particular period of time). It can be figuratively said that this theory gives a microscopic view of the stock exchange and stock exchange phenomena.