Further developments in the Russian economy are characterized by significant uncertainty, while previously imposed restrictions on the Russian Federation, according to the base scenario of the Central Bank, will remain on the forecast horizon. This is stated in the draft main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023-2025. "The further development of events in the Russian economy is characterized by significant uncertainty. It is connected both with the internal adjustment of the economy to new conditions and with external events. The duration and depth of the economic downturn in the coming years will largely depend on how quickly companies will be able to rebuild logistics and production chains, explore new markets and find new suppliers, whether compensating technologies will be developed and how the labor market will adjust. In the basic scenario, the Bank of Russia assumes that the restrictions imposed will remain on the forecast horizon," the document says.
According to the Central Bank, the recovery will not begin until the second half of the year. The Bank of Russia has managed to contain market turmoil and the fall in the ruble exchange rate through capital controls and a sharp increase in interest rates. Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing will begin to have an effect, mitigating the impact of international sanctions.
The Russian economy will shrink for two years in a row against the background of large–scale sanctions: this year the decline will be 7.8%, next year – 0.7%. Inflation in annual terms will be at the level of 17.5% by the end of 2022. Such data are provided in the updated scenario conditions of economic development for 2023 and planned 2024-2025. Even in the short term, uncertainty is quite high: this is the continuation of sanctions pressure, the implementation of already accepted restrictions, which are often delayed, problems with logistics, it is necessary to establish a trading system, increase trade turnover with new partners, especially with Asian ones, establish logistics chains, replace the falling investment imports with domestic production.
The crisis caused by the sanctions will hit the incomes of the population. The promised indexation will cover only the salaries of public sector employees, but it will not cover salaries in the off-budget sector, income from business and property, which will sink significantly.