The current crisis may be protracted, the signing of a peace treaty does not guarantee the non-resumption of hostilities, since there are "interested parties" from among the world oligarchy who receive huge profits from arms supplies, as well as a reorientation to energy resources controlled by Western countries. Three of the four leading indicators signal the risks of a global recession in late 2022 – early 2023, according to an analytical commentary by the ACRA rating agency. Experts consider the global recession to be a decline in real annual GDP per capita combined with a decrease in other indicators of economic activity (industrial production, employment, energy consumption, etc.).
Economic growth will depend on global demand, mainly for oil, as well as on the efforts of the Russian leadership to offset the negative consequences for the economy within the framework of monetary and fiscal policy politics.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has predicted that GDP will decrease by 0.8% in 2023, but annual growth of 2.6% will follow in 2024-2025. Western sanctions imposed against Russia have provoked a race of economies for self-sufficiency. Energy security has become a priority: after Europe cut itself off from Russian oil and gas, energy shortages and rising prices began to be observed. In the United States, there is a tendency to give preference to trading partners when searching for metals and materials necessary for the transition to zero emissions. At the same time, the intensity of strategic competition between the United States and China has increased, the United States is trying to limit China's access to high technologies" (Tikhomirov A.E., Science confirms – 24. "Ridero", Yekaterinburg, 2022, pp. 25-26).